Thursday, February 09, 2006

AAPL - when a stock stinks WalletDoctorBlog

Hi WalletDoctorBlog-

Notice that on January 3rd a question was posted about AAPL in the Wallet Doctor Forum (http://walletdoctor.com/thedoctorisin/login.php) about Apple Computer. I commented that I did not like the chart pattern. Here is why. [Open another browser window for www.bigcharts.com and then type in the ticker symbol for Apple computers (AAPL).] When I looked at the price chart I immediately noticed that it had been in a constant uptrend from $40.00 per share to $80.00 per share.

http://www.walletdoctor.com/stockcd.htm

Pay attention. What I did not like about the chart was that it had risen too much. This means that all of the people who bought at lower prices are starting to take profits by selling out. Selling pressure forces the stock down.

http://www.walletdoctor.com/stockcd.htm

Ironically, when financial gurus are hawking their secret method they will write idiocies like �100% return on AAPL this year alone.� Anytime a stock like AAPL has a long extended rise like this every financial analyst (a close cousin to the gypsy fortune teller) claims that they saw AAPL coming and how you missed out because you weren�t listening to them. This is how the unknowing public�s attention is diverted to stocks that are already run up. The greenhorns (another way of saying inexperienced) get sucked into bad stock market investments this way. The public gets burned buying high and selling low. I don�t teach you to listen to me I teach you to listen to yourself for this very reason. This is why it is so important that you develop your own skills to analyze and select your own stocks..

http://www.walletdoctor.com/stockcd.htm

Also notice how Bigcharts.com kicks you onto a one year chart automatically. That is because almost everyone who wants to get rich in the stock market focuses on the short term and looks at one year charts. [Use the drop down menu next to where you entered the symbol to select a decade chart and look at what happens.] It is obvious that the right time to buy was back in 2003 when you weren�t hearing anything about AAPL. I would have written something like this, �AAPL has a 0% return this year and is my hottest buy recommendation� and would not get any interest from anyone because people simply do not understand long term stock investing.

http://www.walletdoctor.com/stockcd.htm

If you would have bought AAPL at the right price you would have paid between $8 and $10 just a few years ago. You would have had around a 700% holding period return when all of the greenhorns were jumping in at $80. Now you tell me who would sleep better at night. You would have bought at $10 and would be selling now to the greenhorns who bought in at $80. You would sleep well at night while they are tossing and turning in bed. This is why it is so important for you to learn how to invest in the long term.

http://www.walletdoctor.com/stockcd.htm

There is a lot of detail to reading long term charts well but you can see how easy it is to spot the sucker plays on a long term price chart. Go here right now to start to really learn how to buy low and sell high:

http://www.walletdoctor.com/stockcd.htm

-Scott

Ps. I want to give a big kudos to the person who posted that great question on the forum please keep posting them and I will keep teaching you. Don�t forget that you have to register to get in: http://walletdoctor.com/thedoctorisin/login.php

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